Tight cattle market continues, prices up in 2025

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — It’s a good time to be selling cattle. Or is it?

Cattle prices are hitting record highs, not just in South Dakota, but nationwide as the USDA reports historically tight supplies of cattle in 2025.

Man arrested after shooting at Highway Patrol

This scarcity is driving up demand and prices, and while now is a good time to be selling cattle, it may also be a risky time to make moves.

“It’s good for people trying to sell on the calf-cow sector,” said Warren Symens, President of the South Dakota Cattlemen’s Association. “The finishing business — the feedlot business, there’s still a tight margin there depending on when you placed your cattle and when you bought and filled your lots.”

Symens says there are a variety of reasons for the scaling back of herds. One of these has been the multi-year drought in areas of the country, as well as so called “Black Swan” events such a plant fire, COVID and other factors like an aging population of ranchers.

While the market for cattle has been contracting for a few years now, the industry initially expected to see a bounce back beginning in 2026, when Symens said the thought would be that prices would lower as herds get rebuilt.

That rebuilding has not yet started, however, which Symens says may push that rebuild out to 2028.

“This is a regular thing,” said Symens. “The cattle cycle is a regular thing. There’s just some factors at play in timing. There’s always highs and lows in cattle numbers.”

Some additional factors, beyond those already mentioned, include the price of corn, used to feed cattle at times. This can become a particular concern when looking at current tensions around international trade and what it could mean for grain markets.

“There is a concern,” Symens said. “South Dakota Cattlemen’s and National Cattlemen’s are working hard in Washington, D.C. to try and mitigate any tariff issues that might affect beef.”

Looking at the overall outlook for beef in South Dakota, Symens says it is a measured outlook, erring on the side of optimistic.

“It’s going to depend also on what the new administration does as far as conservation efforts and some of those kinds of things. It’s long been our position that cows grazing on the land are good for conservation.”

This conservation is a factor to consider when it comes to buying into the industry right now. Those cows will need to graze.

“Grazing land is always at a premium. They aren’t making more of it. In fact, our grazing lands are shrinking” Symens said. “It might look attractive [to buy in now], but it’s still an all time high to buy into the business right now, and interest rates are not exactly conducive to borrowing.”

You can check out the most recent auction summary for cattle sales by the USDA, here.