Tropical Storm Ileana eyes Mexico’s Cabo San Lucas before moisture winds up in Desert Southwest

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Ileana off of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, which is expected to become the first cyclone to directly impact the coastline during the 2024 season.Ileana is expected to make landfall near the popular resort of Cabo San Lucas on Friday as still a tropical storm before slowly advancing northward through the Gulf of California.During the system’s trek, sustained winds are forecast to never reach above 50 mph, but the more substantial impacts are thought to be heavy rainfall and rough surf.Forecast models show 4-8 inches of rain will be possible across the Baja, with similar amounts impacting the Mexican state of Sinaloa.The heavy rainfall could be a precursor to mudslides and landslides, which are common during tropical weather events.Additionally, the threat for rip currents will be high due to the increased swells, which will linger through the upcoming workweek.HURRICANE OTIS MAKES HISTORIC CATEGORY 5 LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCOThe tropical cyclone is expected to be the first system to directly impact the Mexican coastline since Hurricane Otis’ historic wrath in 2023.In late October, conditions allowed the hurricane to rapidly strengthen into a Category 5 before making landfall near Acapulco.Many along the Mexican coastline were caught off guard by the cyclone’s rapid strengthening, which killed dozens and caused an estimated $15 billion in damage.The areas impacted by Otis will not see direct effects from Ileana, as the tropical storm is hundreds of miles to the region’s northwest.A significant trough of low pressure is expected to draw the cyclone northward though, which will result in effects as far north as the U.S.SOUTHWEST MONSOON SEASON IS HERE: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOWRemnants from the storm could end up over the southwestern U.S. next week, which could increase rain chances and help decrease temperatures.The influx of moisture is expected to be limited but the increased precipitation chances are welcome news for a region that experienced a lackluster monsoon season.Phoenix, which set a record for the most 100 degree days in a row during its hottest summer on record, stands to receive benefits from the increase in cloud cover and rain.Temperatures are expected to be held down closer to 90 degrees, which is both a significant departure from recent months and well below average for mid-September.